The agribusiness chain is already highly complex, but various drivers are conspiring to make it even more so. There are many different crops and food types, each with its own distinctive and often fragmented supply chain.

Prospects for biofuels which use food crops as a feedstock are not as bright as they used to be. In recent years the case for biofuels has been questioned on grounds of both food security and environmental impact.

he impact of global warming on agriculture is the subject of much research and debate. The current conventional wisdom is that crop production will move towards the poles with countries such as Canada and Russia benefiting from the combined impact of increased temperatures, greater precipitation and the carbon fertilization effect. Meanwhile, countries closer to the equator, such as India and Africa, could be hit the worst as higher temperatures reduce crop yields

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran are the largest consumers of barley in the MENA region, using it largely for animal feed. And while Saudi Arabia currently imports nearly all the barley it consumes, projections indicate declining usage as the government encourages livestock producers to use more efficient mixes, including processed feeds

By far the largest field crop by area in the MENA, wheat is currently cultivated on about 26 million hectares. This area is projected to rise about 0.4 percent annually through 2024. Combined with somewhat slow growth in yields, production is expected to grow at a relatively low 1.3 percent annually over the projection period.

Consumption of MENA region soy products has risen over the past 20 years. As with corn, this growth has been driven primarily by rising demand for poultry and other meat. The proportion of soybeans and soybean meal imports varies across the region, depending on each country’s domestic soybean-crushing capacity.

The region’s population consumed an average of 13 million tons of rice per year over the period 2011-13, of which around 7 million tons were imported. The U.S. share of rice imports to the region has fallen, dipping below 15 percent in recent years, as emerging competitors in South Asia and Thailand have gained market share due to lower prices and geographic proximity.

In the MENA region, corn, used mainly as feed for livestock, is grown primarily in Turkey, Egypt, and Iran. While most corn production is irrigated, it remains subject to a different kind of moisture constraint, namely, the limited—and, in some places, declining—underground water supplies. This leaves relatively little room for area expansion or yield growth.

While the MENA region’s import demand for crop commodities has steadily grown, the role of U.S. exports in satisfying this demand has been mixed. This role can be analyzed in two dimensions:
(1) overall volume of U.S. shipments to the region; and (2) the U.S. share of MENA’s total imports.

Although wheat is central in MENA diets, wheat cultivation in the region is significantly constrained by the arid climate and limited water availability. While some production is rain-fed, highly variable annual rainfall, particularly in Morocco and Turkey, contributes to variations in yields, often resulting in large swings in import demand (fig. 8). The MENA region’s growing incomes imply a gradual diversification away from wheat into more expensive food products, including meats. However, governments throughout the region tend to ensure supplies of this key food staple through policies that support both wheat producers and bread consumers and prioritize adequate levels of imports. In combination with robust population growth, this important staple is expected to be in steady demand in the years to come.

Any analysis of the MENA region must acknowledge the large variation of incomes, political conditions, and economic activities among the different countries. Each of these factors carries significant implications for food demand and imports.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region accounts for a significant and growing portion of worldwide food and feed imports. Despite the violence and political uncertainty hanging over parts of the region, the MENA’s growing populations and rising incomes are driving higher demand for major food and feed grains, soybeans, cotton, and meats.